A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
